Opec MOMR sticks to non-Opec supply growth

Opec has kept its non-Opec supply projections little-changed for this year and next, just a day after the group's secretary-general Mohammed Barkindo spoke about the likelihood of "sharp revisions of non-Opec supply going into 2020".

In its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) today, the group's research division maintained its 2019 projection for non-Opec supply growth unchanged from last month, at 1.82mn b/d, and trimmed its 2020 forecast by 36,000 b/d to 2.17mn b/d.

Non-Opec supply increased by nearly 2mn b/d in 2018, driven by a surge in US tight-oil output. Opec cut its forecast for 2019 US supply growth by 47,000 b/d to 1.62mn b/d, and sees US supply growing by 1.5mn b/d next year, or 33,000 b/d slower than it projected in October. Still, this represents annual growth of 9.7pc and 8.2pc, respectively.

The MOMR forecasts global oil demand growth at 980,000 b/d this year at 1.08mn b/d next year, unchanged from last month.

"Total global demand is forecast to exceed 100mn b/d on an annual basis, to average 100.88mn b/d in 2020," it said.

The report's forecast call on Opec's crude was unchanged from last month, at 30.7mn b/d this year and 29.6mn b/d in 2020. Citing secondary sources, including Argus, the MOMR said that Opec crude production rose by 943,000 b/d last month to average 29.65mn b/d.

Saudi Arabia told the Opec secretariat that its October production grew by 1.17mn b/d from September to 10.3mn b/d. Iraq told the secretariat its output declined by 44,000 b/d in October to 4.58mn b/d. Iraq's oil minister Thamir Ghadhban vowed in September to cut output by 150,000 b/d in October. The ministry told Argus last week that its production averaged 4.62mn b/d in October.

source: Argus Media