India under pressure to extend Covid-19 lockdown

India's Punjab state has become the first to extend its Covid-19 lockdown, amid rising indications that nationwide measures may continue in some form beyond the scheduled end date of 3 May.

Punjab, which is home to the 226,000 b/d Bhatinda refinery owned by state-controlled HPCL and the private-sector Mittal group, will keep lockdown measures in place for another two weeks until 17 May. There will be some relief for "green zones" that appear to be free of the coronavirus, but district officials in these areas are reluctant to allow businesses to open because of fears of a new outbreak.

India's Covid-19 outbreak is likely to peak in August-September with over half of the country's 1.35bn population infected, Punjab chief minister Amarinder Singh said.

The federal government will announce whether the lockdown will be extended on 3 May. But anecdotal evidence and government notifications suggest the restrictions will remain in place in at least 150-170 districts, including major urban areas such as Mumbai, Delhi, Pune, Hyderabad, Chennai and Bengaluru.

Much of the country's economic activity is concentrated in or dependent on areas hit by the coronavirus, so any relaxations in other areas may not have a major impact on economic activity or fuel demand.

Airlines are not accepting bookings until 31 May. Curfews and restrictions on movement of people in cities have already sent fuel demand lower by over 60pc this month. India's 3.3mn b/d of state-controlled refining capacity and the 17.5mn t/yr Dahej LNG import terminal are operating at 50-55pc capacity of capacity on average, according to officials at state-run companies.

The government yesterday announced plans to help migrant workers return to their homes, further complicating any moves to quickly lift the lockdown. Many of these workers have been stuck in cities since the movement restrictions were announced, in what has become a politically sensitive issue. But the mass migration risks spreading the coronavirus across the country.

The number of confirmed virus cases in India has surged around 40-fold to over 33,000 from about 800 when the lockdown began on 25 March. But the testing rate is low on a per capita basis compared to some other countries.

By S Dinakar

source: Argus Media