OPEC May End Supply Cuts Prematurely as Prices Rise
As oil trades near a three-year high and crude stockpiles fall rapidly, analysts are questioning whether the OPEC-led production cuts will last until the end of the year.
As the producer group gears up for a meeting with its partners to review strategy in Muscat, Oman, this weekend, there are growing expectations that the deal will be phased out early, Bloomberg reported.
The "probability is growing" that the accord may conclude before the end of the year, said Harry Tchilinguirian, BNP Paribas SA’s head of commodity strategy.
"Discussions around an early exit are likely to emerge at the next OPEC meeting in June," he said.
"If Brent is still trading around $60 a barrel and oil inventories are close enough to OPEC’s five-year average," the deal may be phased out informally by nations gradually weakening their compliance with production cuts, Tchilinguirian added.
It would be prudent to expect OPEC members will start cheating given higher oil prices, said Energy Aspects Ltd.’s chief oil analyst, Amrita Sen.
Other analysts predict a more formalized unwinding of the cuts.
"I do not think the deal per se will end" as inventories near the five-year average, said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodity analyst at SEB AB.
The Declaration of Cooperation—the 2016 accord that first established the group of 24 oil producers—will still stand, but be modified to allow for production cuts to gradually unwind from mid-2018, he said.
Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS Group AG, expects a similar outcome. Citigroup Inc., whose data show that global oil stockpiles are already back in line with the five-year average, predicting a summer agreement to ramp up production.
The oil producers themselves say they are sticking to the plan. While Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak told reporters on Jan. 12 that the meeting in Oman could include discussion of mechanisms for gradually exiting the cuts, four days later he affirmed that the pact should continue.
Ministers from the UAE, Iraq and Kuwait also insisted there is no need to change tack.
source: Financial Tribune
Top News
Glencore in talks to sell Philippine copper smelting unit
Rasul Khalife Soltani, Secretary of the Iranian Steel Producers Association on the sidelines of the 1403 Steel Symposium:
Mobarakeh steel is producing green steel through scrap recycling
Norilsk Nickel plans to sell all it produces in 2025
Volkswagen buys 9.9% of Patriot Battery Metals for $48 million
India’s record gold import said to be due to calculation error
Sibanye raises $500m via metals streaming deal with Franco-Nevada
Norge Mining acquires Europe’s largest natural graphite producer
Mercuria partners with Zambia on metals trading venture
Aluminum price falls to one-month low in wider commodity slump
Lure of Anglo’s copper mines could test BHP’s spending resolve
Copper giant Peru foresees another production plateau in 2025
Iron ore price weakens as Australia flags return to sub-$100 prices
Nickel price hits 4-year low as gloom offsets potential Indonesia cuts
Mercuria partners with Zambia on metals trading venture
Sibanye raises $500m via metals streaming deal with Franco-Nevada
Triple Flag to acquire royalty on Tres Quebradas lithium project
Volkswagen buys 9.9% of Patriot Battery Metals for $48 million
Aluminum price falls to one-month low in wider commodity slump
India’s record gold import said to be due to calculation error
Lure of Anglo’s copper mines could test BHP’s spending resolve
Iron ore price weakens as Australia flags return to sub-$100 prices
Nickel price hits 4-year low as gloom offsets potential Indonesia cuts
Sibanye raises $500m via metals streaming deal with Franco-Nevada
Triple Flag to acquire royalty on Tres Quebradas lithium project
Volkswagen buys 9.9% of Patriot Battery Metals for $48 million
Aluminum price falls to one-month low in wider commodity slump
India’s record gold import said to be due to calculation error
Glencore in talks to sell Philippine copper smelting unit
