Vietnam's March coal imports rise but outlook uncertain

Vietnam's coal imports increased in March from a year earlier, partly because some cargoes destined for India were resold to Vietnamese buyers. But there is uncertainty surrounding Vietnam's future demand amid a lack of clarity on whether its Covid-19 restrictions, which are set to expire today, will be extended.

Vietnam imported 4.45mn t of coal in March, up by 17.2pc from March 2019, according to provisional Vietnamese customs data. The data do not differentiate between coking coal and thermal coal. March's receipts were also higher compared with 3.34mn t in February.

Indonesian coal accounted for the bulk of last month's imports, with receipts increasing by 650,140t from a year earlier to about 2.08mn t. Vietnam's imports from Australia rose by 539,095t to 1.56mn t. Vietnam imported 410,052t from Russia, down from 720,860t from a year earlier.

The increase in imports last month was partly as cargoes destined for India were resold and diverted to Vietnamese buyers. The lockdown in India, which first began on 25 March, resulted in port disruptions and closures.

India's lockdown, which has now been extended until 3 May, prompted Indonesian buyers to divert cargoes to China and southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam, as Indian buyers sought deferments as well as the cancellation of orders. This helped to support Vietnam's imports, even as the country announced a partial lockdown to curb the spread of the coronavirus.

Vietnam's social distancing curbs, which started on 1 April, could also weigh on electricity generation as well as consumption. But power output rose to 54TWh in the first quarter, up from 50.3TWh a year earlier, on the back of new capacity, according to the country's general statistics office. Vietnam's GDP grew by 3.82pc during January-March this year, the lowest in recent years. But Hanoi sees the economy being on a fundamentally strong footing, despite the coronavirus-related disruptions, as the country builds five-year socio-economic development plan for 2021-25, targeting an average growth rate of 7pc/yr.

State-owned utility EVN has set a target to increase generated and purchased power output this year by 8.9pc compared with 2019 to 251.62TWh. The company's total power supplies, including its own generation and power that it purchased, reached 231.1TWh last year, an increase of 8.85pc from 2018.

Vietnam commissioned 1.2GW of new coal-fired generation capacity last year to bring its total to 19.2GW. It is set to bring 2.1GW on line this year and has 3.7GW of capacity under construction that is scheduled to come on line in 2021 and another 3.2GW under construction to launch in 2022. A further 870MW is planned to come on line in 2022, although construction has not started.

By Saurabh Chaturvedi

source: Argus Media