Survey Shows Saudis, UAE Cover Iran Oil Loss

OPEC oil supply has fallen in November from a two-year high due to US sanctions on Iran, a Reuters survey found, although most of the output gap left by Iran was plugged by Saudi Arabia and the UAE in response to calls from US President Donald Trump.

The 15-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has pumped 33.11 million barrels per day this month, the survey on Saturday found, down 160,000 bpd from October, which was the highest by OPEC as a group since December 2016, Reuters reported.

The survey adds to indications that OPEC output remains ample despite US sanctions on Iran this month. Oil prices have slid 30% since early October on worries a new glut may emerge. OPEC and its allies including Russia meet on Dec. 6-7 in Vienna to discuss cutting supply.

With Saudi Arabia and Russia pumping at record rates, US output surging and forecasts pointing to lower demand in 2019 due to a slowing economy, some analysts are skeptical the producers will avoid generating a surplus.

“The most likely outcome of next week’s OPEC meeting is a fudge,” said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM, the world's leading broker of oil instruments

“Russia and Saudi Arabia will agree to curb production but by less than is needed to prevent a supply imbalance in early 2019.”

OPEC, Russia and other non-members agreed in June to return to 100% compliance with output cuts that began in January 2017, after months of underproduction in Venezuela and Angola that had pushed adherence above 160%.

In November, the 12 OPEC members bound by the supply-limiting agreement boosted compliance to 120% as production fell in Iran, from a revised 110% in October, the survey found.

The biggest drop in OPEC supply this month has come from Iran, according to the survey.

Exports fell at times below 1 million bpd as returning US sanctions discouraged companies from buying Iranian oil, although volumes rose later in the month, sources in the survey said. Sanctions waivers granted to eight buyers could lead to higher exports in December, analysts have said.

source: Financial Tribune